Lessons from 1918 and the Spanish Influenza

I know. I know. The world is a scary enough place without ruining a fun loving "safe space" blog by dragging reality into the mix, right? I get it. Honestly, I do. But, we are also very big history buffs and so much has been forgotten by so many, that sometimes, it is incumbent upon the keepers of the secrets of history to share some tidbits that could make a difference when applied to current situations. So, here we go... 

In the 24 months between January 1918, and December 1920, a flu strain nicknamed "The Spanish Flu" infected an estimated 27-33% of the human population around the globe in at least two seperate waves. Of the 500 million infected, between 10 and 20% died of the affliction, or 50-100 million souls. In the United States alone, an estimated 675,000 people died. That is more than the combined number of US Military fatalities in all combined wars throughout that entire century, including WWI, WWII, Korea, Viet Nam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. 

Of those fatalities in the US, almost 1/3 would occur within one month, in October of 1918, when approximately 195,000 US citizens perished. The numbers are absolutely staggering and it was the second largest killer in human history behind only the original "black plague," when, between 1347 and 1351, the world population was halved when as many as 200 million souls, and entire cities, perished. 

In fact, in 1918, as a result, life expectancy statistics dropped by a full 12 years across the board. This was at a time when the world was estimated to have a population of about 1.9 billion. As of April 2019, we now stand at an estimated 7.7 billion, meaning that a similar virus today following the same path could infect 2 billion people worldwide and result in 200-400 million fatalities. 

All of those numbers are so large as to be almost meaningless. They are overwhelmingly large and incomprehensibly bad. It is not my intention to cause panic or send you running to the hills either. Rather, it is to look at the numbers, imagine how your community would deal with them, and start developing a plan of your own, because if we have learned anything in recent years, it is that NO ONE is coming to save you. 

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf, I went down early on as part of the relief efforts. Before that time, most of us in America had a reasonable expectation that in times of natural and overwhelming disasters, that someone would come and save us. After all, in the wealthiest nation in the history of the world, we ought to be able to sit out front of our ravaged home, or climb atop our rooftop during a flood and wait for the cavalry to come. 

For too many souls along the Gulf, however, no one ever came. Then, in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, for all too many people, no help ever came. More recently, in the aftermath of the earthquakes, the government did not come riding in on white horses to save anyone. And these were all during times when there were one or two areas affected by disasters. Imagine if the entire nation (and the world) was gripped simultaneously in a state of disaster. NO ONE is going to be coming to help you. As the people of Puerto Rico have learned the hard way, you are essentially on your own, and you need to prepare for it on your own as well. 

Preparedness means breaking down the numbers and planning for your communities and neighborhoods and towns and counties, and understanding the sort of planning that may be required. 

For instance, here where we live in Rincon, Puerto Rico right now, there are about 15,000 residents. If the 1918 averages were applied, that would mean, we could reasonably expect to have 4,000 people sick and requiring care in a short time period, resulting in between 400 and 800 casualties. If the October of 1918 numbers held, there could be between 130 and 260 casualties in one month. Even if the second generation strain of Spanish Flu numbers did not follow, and we encountered the thus far established death toll of 2% of infected individuals, that would mean a community of 15,000, with an infection rate of 4,000 sick, could expect 80 deaths. 

The questions ought to be, how would we handle 500-1,000 sick people at once? The aftermath of Hurricane Maria backlogged overworked officials with bodies. What happens when we have several thousand? How would your community deal with several hundred bodies? Or even twenty? Doesn't sound like much until you tax a system that routinely manages one or two bodies per week with ten times the amount. Start experiencing those kind of losses several days in a row, and it becomes a crisis in and of itself.

What about fear and travel? From 1918, there are reports of communities creating road blockades with armed men, restricting travel in or out of towns and counties. It naturally didn't work to stop the virus from spreading, but if we live in a world of distrust of foreigners and anti-immigrant sentiments already, what would be the result of a pandemic? Currently, travel restrictions are alreayd being imposed to and from numerous parts of the world.

What about shortages, riots, and control? Will your community spiral into chaos when the food and gas trucks stop flowing in regularly? There is already talk of impending shortages of certain supplies based on manufacturing shutdowns in parts of China. If this thing spreads, how could it ultimately affect security in your community when necessities get scarce? How will your community retain order? How will an island, like Puerto Rico, where the vast majority of food and supplies are imported daily, cope with supply chains being severed for weeks or months?

A big reason the absolute numbers from 1918 are so up in the air with estimates have everything to do with disinformation. The world, after all, was in the grip of World War I, and none of the involved nations wanted information spreading that they were being hindered by such numbers of sick and dying citizens. 

In the United States newspapers and reporters even lived under the threat of being charged with violating the Sedition Act, and imprisoned, for giving citizens actual information about the virus, the spread, and the horrible numbers communities might expect when it reached them. As a result, the virus that would go on to kill three times as many citizens as the war itself would claim in US military losses, was vastly under-reported, and suppressed to the point of drifting into near obscurity within our collective memory. 

The virus itself, believed by many to have first risen within the US Military ranks from Kansas, was ultimately named "The Spanish Flu" because Spain was the only advanced nation freely reporting about the illness to their citizens and the rest of the world. Americans would read newspaper account about fantastic numbers of sick and dying patients in Spain over their evening meals, and have no idea the same story was being played out in the next town over, or believe it was actually happening in their own.

I was reminded of this as I listened to our own US President recently white-washing and downplaying Coronavirus threats. I am not saying that we should panic, or that this is the threat to end all threats, or that this virus is "the big one." Rather, that politics be damned, and that no politician can be entirely trusted to give us the whole truth about something so serious as a threat to national security, or the beloved stock markets. If it comes down to choosing between losing tens of thousands of citizens, or the economic health of a nation, history has shown time and time again which side they will ultimately come out on.

FDR once said "there is nothing to fear, but fear itself." He wasn't talking about disasters or pandemics, but it fits there too. While there are no numbers reportable, during the 1918 Spanish Flu, there are stories about entire families who were stricken ill. Some of these ultimately died of starvation in their sickbeds because fear stricken neighbors would not go near to lend aid or assistance, and no government or community planning had taken place to properly deal with the problem. 

That is preciesly the kind of fears that need to be planned for. In a worst case scenario, there will be communities torn apart, pandemonium and lawlessness in the streets, shortages resulting in food rioting and gas lines, and people starving to death in their sickbeds. That will be the sad fate of many communities who trust entirely in their governments. Hospitals already struggle to find space enough on any given day. What will your community do with a few hundred extra sick people when the big city hospitals are already full as well?

That is why I am writing this now. Entire sectors of Chinese manufacturing have shutdown, and military exercises and schools are being shuttered in Japan. As I write this on 2/27/2020, the current official virus count is 82,589 cases in 50 countries, with 2,814 fatalities. All that since January 22nd. The current estimated infection rate is that of each new case results in 2-3 new infections. In short, the horse is already out of the barn on this one. 

In Northern Italy, in Lombardy and Venetto, numerous communities are under government restrictions right now, and a US Airforce base there is being quarantined. New cases are being reported throughout Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones has had the worst week on record since the 2008 housing bubble burst.  

Time to panic? No. It is time to plan. Again, as governments have begun to restrict travel, close schools and cancel communal events, if the virus continues upon its deadly trend setting path, it is only a matter of time before it hits YOUR community. When it does, you can expect little in the way of outside help or resources because everything we have in the way of existing health and emergency services cannot appropriately handle single event large scale disasters with relatively small geographic distribution, let alone one that could simultaneouly cripple entire regions of the world and nation. 

I am not talking about the need to plan for you and your family and grabbing your bugout bags and heading into the hills. I am talking about the people with experience in disasters and community involvement and LOCAL government leaders, to begin talking immediately about what they can do to prepare for these kinds of scenarios in their communities and developing answers to problems before they arise. 

Like in 1918, the virus is most serious in the elderly and individuals with weakened immune systems, and these are the bulk of fatalities. However, like 1918, the virus likely has the ability to change as it spreads and develop more dangerous strains that can affect the young and healthy. 

If the federal government says it is bad, then things are probably much, much worse. In time, this too shall come to pass. It is mostly a matter of how well your community is prepared to deal with things. Planning or pandemonium? The choice is likely up to the least of us for each neighborhood, town, and county.